Verbatim from the venue. The analyst must quote these, never paraphrase.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
early_close_conditionIf this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Order book
Top of book, both sides expressed as YES prices.
Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
ask2,99229¢
ask2,51028¢
ask1,01427¢
ask1,10826¢
ask1,11825¢
ask61124¢
ask21023¢
ask4.0122¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
bid2621¢
bid3620¢
bid1,50819¢
bid4,79218¢
bid2,29217¢
bid18116¢
bid2,79315¢
bid24614¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes
1h ago
23¢
77¢
4.06
yes
1h ago
23¢
77¢
0.06
yes
1h ago
22¢
78¢
4.27
yes
1h ago
22¢
78¢
9.88
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
18
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
13
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
28
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
21
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
2.75
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
5
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
2.59
yes
2h ago
22¢
78¢
1.49
yes
3h ago
20¢
80¢
21
no
3h ago
20¢
80¢
2.59
no
3h ago
20¢
80¢
3.56
no
3h ago
20¢
80¢
24
no
4h ago
22¢
78¢
21
yes
4h ago
22¢
78¢
3.46
yes
4h ago
22¢
78¢
16
yes
4h ago
21¢
79¢
8.21
yes
4h ago
21¢
79¢
13
yes
4h ago
21¢
79¢
2.66
yes
4h ago
20¢
80¢
7.97
no
4h ago
20¢
80¢
13
no
4h ago
20¢
80¢
10
no
event_ticker
KXRECSSNBER-27
exchange_index0
expected_expiration_time2028-01-31T15:00:00Z
expiration_time2028-02-07T15:00:00Z
expiration_value
last_price_dollars0.2300
latest_expiration_time2028-02-07T15:00:00Z
liquidity_dollars0.0000
market_typebinary
no_ask_dollars0.7900
no_bid_dollars0.7800
no_sub_titleYes
notional_value_dollars1.0000
occurrence_datetime2028-01-31T15:00:00Z
open_interest_fp233025.13
open_time2026-04-24T19:15:00Z
previous_price_dollars0.2200
previous_yes_ask_dollars0.2400
previous_yes_bid_dollars0.2200
price_level_structurelinear_cent
price_ranges1
[0]3
end1.0000
start0.0000
step0.0100
result
rules_primaryIf there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
rules_secondaryFor the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.