Will Angela Rayner be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

If Angela Rayner is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count. If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No. A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.

opens

Aug 19 · 5:42 PM UTC

closes

Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early

expires

Jan 8, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC

category

Politics

event

mutually exclusive outcomes