House winner·closes in 29mo

Will the Republican party win the House in 2028?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
17
7,158 lifetime
Open interest
3,186
+164 over 7d
Spread
76 × 505 at the touch
24h range
23¢ – 30¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 74¢
24h low 23¢24h high 30¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

20¢25¢30¢35¢volSep 16Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Republican party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2029.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Feb 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
CONTROLH-2028-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago28¢5bought yes
13h ago29¢6.73bought yes
13h ago28¢5bought yes
1d ago29¢16bought yes
2d ago28¢600bought yes
2d ago26¢34bought no
2d ago25¢86bought no
2d ago27¢1.95bought no
2d ago25¢100bought no
2d ago26¢100bought no
2d ago24¢100bought no
2d ago23¢88bought no
2d ago26¢79bought no
2d ago27¢6bought no
2d ago27¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.