Electoral college margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

YES means Democratic by 91 to 130

24h volume: 0; 1,074 lifetime
Open interest: 1,074; +0 over 7d
Spread: 5¢; 205 × 205 at the touch
24h range: –; 3 recent trades

Chance of YES

14%

A YES contract costs 18¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

86%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask

13¢ / 18¢

NO bid / ask

82¢ / 87¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask56379¢
ask26178¢
ask20518¢

spread5¢mid 16¢

bid20513¢
bid20012¢
bid510¢
bid2059¢
bid58¢
bid763¢
bid1,0162¢
bid1001¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

United States Congress

opened: May 15 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: -130
cap: -91
ticker: ECMOV-28NOV07-DEM91T130

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 3 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
2mo ago	12¢	200	bought yes
2mo ago	13¢	500	bought yes
2mo ago	14¢	374	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.