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Electoral college margin of victory·closes in 32mo

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes?

YES means Republican by 1 to 10

24h volume
0
381 lifetime
Open interest
380
Spread
4¢
199 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask52086¢
  • ask20085¢
  • ask4384¢
  • ask3759¢
  • ask27751¢
  • ask15450¢
  • ask2008¢
spread4¢mid 6¢
  • bid1994¢
  • bid193¢
  • bid1102¢
  • bid1501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 1-10 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 15 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 6, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
1
cap
10
ticker
ECMOV-28NOV07-REP1T10
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 70¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.