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Vermont Governor·closes in 14mo

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Vermont

YES means Phil Scott

24h volume
4,820
57.0k lifetime
Open interest
26.4k
+1,214 over 24h
Spread
2¢
50 × 54 at the touch
24h range
92¢ – 95¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
95%+2

A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
5%

costs 7¢

YES bid / ask
93¢ / 95¢
NO bid / ask
5¢ / 7¢
24h low 92¢24h high 95¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 20, 4:57 AMSep 21, 4:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask10.0k99¢
  • ask3,50098¢
  • ask50.0k97¢
  • ask17297¢
  • ask15097¢
  • ask2997¢
  • ask2,84595¢
  • ask5495¢
spread2¢mid 94¢
  • bid5093¢
  • bid5093¢
  • bid15092¢
  • bid2,50092¢
  • bid16991¢
  • bid50.0k91¢
  • bid1090¢
  • bid10089¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Vermont pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 3, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 5, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
GOVPARTYVT-26-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 100¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
21m ago95¢29bought yes
2h ago94¢22bought yes
2h ago94¢22bought yes
2h ago94¢974bought yes
2h ago94¢178bought yes
2h ago94¢50bought yes
2h ago95¢5bought yes
3h ago92¢29bought no
3h ago92¢60bought no
4h ago92¢29bought no
4h ago93¢4bought no
4h ago92¢9bought no
6h ago94¢2,500bought no
7h ago94¢374bought no
7h ago94¢250bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.