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2028 D running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
0
65.1k lifetime
Open interest
31.5k
Spread
3¢
50 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
77%

A YES contract costs 79¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
23%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 79¢
NO bid / ask
21¢ / 24¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,66486¢
  • ask9785¢
  • ask12884¢
  • ask2,22283¢
  • ask39082¢
  • ask15481¢
  • ask3980¢
  • ask1,00079¢
spread3¢mid 78¢
  • bid5076¢
  • bid2575¢
  • bid14374¢
  • bid2773¢
  • bid4172¢
  • bid27171¢
  • bid3,98470¢
  • bid16669¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028DRUN-28-GNEW
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago77¢0.99bought no
3d ago74¢18bought no
3d ago74¢12bought yes
3d ago74¢0.1bought yes
3d ago75¢176bought yes
3d ago76¢16bought yes
3d ago74¢8.08bought yes
3d ago74¢12bought yes
3d ago76¢16bought yes
3d ago76¢44bought yes
3d ago74¢0.04bought yes
3d ago77¢257bought yes
3d ago74¢4.52bought yes
3d ago74¢3.32bought yes
3d ago73¢83bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.