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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Donald J. Trump

24h volume
0
18.0k lifetime
Open interest
7,977
+148 over 7d
Spread
1¢
100 × 293 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
16%

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
84%

costs 85¢

YES bid / ask
15¢ / 16¢
NO bid / ask
84¢ / 85¢
Recent buying92% YES · 8% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢volSep 15Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18749¢
  • ask13448¢
  • ask8546¢
  • ask8345¢
  • ask3344¢
  • ask14743¢
  • ask1,05017¢
  • ask29316¢
spread1¢mid 16¢
  • bid10015¢
  • bid1314¢
  • bid14813¢
  • bid8812¢
  • bid1,00011¢
  • bid1669¢
  • bid1809¢
  • bid1329¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald J. Trump announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 92% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago16¢118bought yes
4d ago14¢0.65bought no
4d ago16¢30bought yes
6d ago16¢12bought yes
7d ago13¢10bought no
9d ago16¢5.9bought yes
14d ago13¢4.01bought no
14d ago14¢11bought no
17d ago16¢0.82bought yes
20d ago14¢2bought no
20d ago14¢2bought no
20d ago16¢4bought yes
20d ago16¢2.95bought yes
22d ago13¢14bought no
22d ago14¢9.05bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.