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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Tucker Carlson

24h volume
0
60.1k lifetime
Open interest
20.6k
Spread
1¢
1,000 × 909 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
26%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 74¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40034¢
  • ask52833¢
  • ask1,05632¢
  • ask1,06531¢
  • ask1,51730¢
  • ask1,51229¢
  • ask1,00928¢
  • ask90927¢
spread1¢mid 27¢
  • bid1,00026¢
  • bid14724¢
  • bid1622¢
  • bid3521¢
  • bid60020¢
  • bid7418¢
  • bid3617¢
  • bid46916¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tucker Carlson announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 31, 2025 · 3:23 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago26¢9.76bought no
2d ago27¢3.52bought yes
2d ago27¢37bought yes
2d ago26¢11bought no
4d ago27¢2bought yes
4d ago27¢1bought yes
4d ago27¢50bought yes
6d ago24¢3bought no
10d ago25¢1.12bought yes
10d ago25¢2.68bought yes
10d ago24¢3bought no
10d ago26¢999bought no
10d ago26¢1,909bought no
15d ago26¢14bought no
16d ago27¢0.11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.