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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Elise Stefanik

24h volume
0
1,049 lifetime
Open interest
588
+0 over 7d
Spread
1¢
5 × 30 at the touch
24h range
–
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 15¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 15¢
NO bid / ask
85¢ / 86¢
Recent buying91% YES · 9% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask525¢
  • ask8224¢
  • ask3020¢
  • ask1919¢
  • ask1018¢
  • ask1517¢
  • ask1,03516¢
  • ask3015¢
spread1¢mid 15¢
  • bid514¢
  • bid7.1811¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid218¢
  • bid728¢
  • bid108¢
  • bid297¢
  • bid1,0007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Elise Stefanik announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-ESTE
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 91% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago15¢6.29bought yes
7d ago14¢5bought yes
9d ago14¢1.37bought yes
9d ago15¢23bought yes
9d ago14¢7.37bought yes
26d ago13¢2.17bought yes
1mo ago8¢2.17bought no
1mo ago14¢54bought yes
1mo ago10¢1.07bought yes
1mo ago11¢14bought yes
1mo ago12¢55bought yes
1mo ago13¢55bought yes
1mo ago11¢5bought yes
1mo ago11¢1.07bought yes
1mo ago10¢19bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.