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2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Tucker Carlson

24h volume
0
60.1k lifetime
Open interest
20.6k
−40 over 30d
Spread
1¢
1,000 × 909 at the touch
24h range
24¢ – 31¢
Chance of YES
26%

A YES contract costs 27¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 74¢

YES bid / ask
26¢ / 27¢
NO bid / ask
73¢ / 74¢
24h low 24¢24h high 31¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask40034¢
  • ask52833¢
  • ask1,05632¢
  • ask1,06531¢
  • ask1,51730¢
  • ask1,51229¢
  • ask1,00928¢
  • ask90927¢
spread1¢mid 27¢
  • bid1,00026¢
  • bid14724¢
  • bid1622¢
  • bid3521¢
  • bid60020¢
  • bid7418¢
  • bid3617¢
  • bid46916¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tucker Carlson announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 31, 2025 · 3:23 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.