galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 R running·closes in 16mo

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?

YES means Vivek Ramaswamy

24h volume
0
11.6k lifetime
Open interest
4,007
+20 over 7d
Spread
1¢
9.3 × 9.15 at the touch
24h range
–
30 recent trades
Chance of YES
22%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
78%

costs 76¢

YES bid / ask
24¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 76¢
Recent buying74% YES · 26% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1045¢
  • ask1040¢
  • ask30239¢
  • ask1,00030¢
  • ask2229¢
  • ask10027¢
  • ask1126¢
  • ask9.1525¢
spread1¢mid 25¢
  • bid9.324¢
  • bid1622¢
  • bid1,00021¢
  • bid2548¢
  • bid437¢
  • bid1507¢
  • bid5505¢
  • bid105¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Vivek Ramaswamy announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 22, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX2028RRUN-28-VRAM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 30 trades, 74% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago23¢14bought no
4d ago22¢18bought no
12d ago24¢1.36bought no
12d ago25¢7.64bought no
12d ago24¢5bought no
17d ago29¢0.85bought yes
17d ago26¢2.65bought no
18d ago28¢8.35bought yes
18d ago24¢5bought no
18d ago25¢5.55bought no
23d ago28¢34bought yes
23d ago29¢16bought yes
23d ago30¢143bought yes
28d ago25¢4bought no
28d ago26¢1.33bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.