Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?·closes in 40mo

Will legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) become law before Dec 31, 2029?

YES means Yes

24h volume
0
101 lifetime
Open interest
50
+0.12 over 90d
Spread
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
4 recent trades
Chance of YES
75%

A YES contract costs 81¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
25%

costs 24¢

YES bid / ask
76¢ / 81¢
NO bid / ask
19¢ / 24¢
Recent buying1% YES · 99% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

70¢75¢80¢85¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20081¢
spreadmid 79¢
  • bid576¢
  • bid375¢
  • bid20072¢
  • bid2070¢
  • bid2060¢
  • bid2050¢
  • bid10040¢
  • bid52433¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) has become law after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.

opened
May 6 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KX48ETAXCREDIT-26MAY
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?.

Recent trades

Over the last 4 trades, 1% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7d ago75¢17bought no
1mo ago78¢0.12bought yes
2mo ago76¢0.12bought no
2mo ago80¢0.12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.