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Abraham Accord Qatar·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
96
85.4k lifetime
Open interest
41.5k
Spread
0¢
1,601 × 260 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−0

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
Recent buying17% YES · 83% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1514¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask1,0005¢
  • ask1975¢
  • ask9904¢
  • ask3004¢
  • ask7803¢
  • ask2603¢
spread0¢mid 3¢
  • bid1,6013¢
  • bid5501¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid2,0001¢
  • bid20.0k1¢
  • bid21.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Qatar normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified as before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion. Examples of agreements that would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMQ-27-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 17% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago3¢96bought no
4d ago3¢18bought yes
10d ago4¢1bought yes
18d ago3¢22bought no
18d ago4¢10bought yes
18d ago3¢10bought no
19d ago3¢260bought no
19d ago3¢470bought no
22d ago3¢19bought no
1mo ago3¢700bought no
1mo ago3¢2bought no
1mo ago5¢11bought yes
1mo ago5¢11bought yes
1mo ago3¢809bought no
1mo ago5¢3bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.