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Abraham Accord Qatar·closes in 28mo

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
3.57
16.4k lifetime
Open interest
6,262
−3.57 over 24h
Spread
3¢
205 × 20 at the touch
24h range
19¢ – 19¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
19%+2

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
81%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask
16¢ / 19¢
NO bid / ask
81¢ / 84¢
24h low 19¢24h high 19¢
Recent buying48% YES · 52% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 4:16 AMSep 20, 10:41 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4632¢
  • ask3029¢
  • ask1528¢
  • ask20026¢
  • ask6024¢
  • ask523¢
  • ask2.3822¢
  • ask2019¢
spread3¢mid 18¢
  • bid20516¢
  • bid914¢
  • bid4010¢
  • bid538¢
  • bid328¢
  • bid68¢
  • bid5518¢
  • bid2027¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Qatar normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMQ-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 48% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago19¢2.62bought yes
12h ago19¢0.95bought yes
1d ago17¢2.38bought no
1d ago18¢5bought yes
1d ago18¢7.62bought yes
1d ago19¢6.19bought yes
1d ago18¢5bought yes
5d ago18¢2.38bought yes
7d ago17¢2.38bought no
16d ago17¢3.57bought no
18d ago17¢500bought no
18d ago17¢6.19bought no
19d ago17¢23bought no
19d ago17¢0.95bought no
27d ago17¢2.14bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.