Abraham Accord Qatar·closes in 28mo

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume: 3.57; 16.4k lifetime
Open interest: 6,262; +614 over 90d
Spread: 3¢; 205 × 20 at the touch
24h range: 14¢ – 25¢

Chance of YES

19%+2

A YES contract costs 19¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

81%

costs 84¢

YES bid / ask

16¢ / 19¢

NO bid / ask

81¢ / 84¢

24h low 14¢24h high 25¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Qatar normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

The New York Times

opened: Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXABRAHAMQ-29-JAN20

Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.