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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Djibouti normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Djibouti

24h volume
0
2,705 lifetime
Open interest
1,231
+707 over 90d
Spread
5¢
36 × 300 at the touch
24h range
–
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 92¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,57684¢
  • ask24661¢
  • ask83660¢
  • ask90759¢
  • ask17252¢
  • ask12750¢
  • ask4749¢
  • ask30013¢
spread5¢mid 11¢
  • bid369¢
  • bid136¢
  • bid216¢
  • bid1404¢
  • bid2004¢
  • bid1382¢
  • bid2001¢
  • bid3,4370¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Djibouti normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2025 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-DJIB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 36 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago13¢36bought yes
8d ago13¢76bought yes
8d ago10¢15bought yes
8d ago9¢4bought yes
8d ago11¢21bought yes
8d ago9¢0.6bought yes
10d ago9¢4bought no
16d ago9¢9.4bought yes
19d ago10¢17bought no
19d ago10¢4.27bought no
21d ago11¢500bought no
21d ago12¢4.45bought no
21d ago13¢5bought no
21d ago13¢4.55bought no
23d ago13¢15bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.