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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Oman normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Oman

24h volume
0
18.3k lifetime
Open interest
9,344
Spread
3¢
1 × 2.33 at the touch
24h range
–
33 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 97¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8844¢
  • ask13741¢
  • ask1740¢
  • ask3031¢
  • ask2.019¢
  • ask508¢
  • ask1007¢
  • ask2.336¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid13¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1552¢
  • bid5551¢
  • bid1,0001¢
  • bid10.7k1¢
  • bid22.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Oman normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2025 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-OMAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 33 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago4¢2.01bought no
2d ago3¢2.33bought no
4d ago6¢1bought yes
23d ago7¢500bought no
26d ago7¢211bought no
26d ago7¢1bought no
26d ago7¢1.8bought no
26d ago8¢1bought no
27d ago10¢1.8bought yes
27d ago10¢1bought yes
27d ago9¢1bought yes
27d ago9¢1bought yes
29d ago7¢1bought no
29d ago7¢25bought no
1mo ago7¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.