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Abraham Accord Saudi Arabia·closes in 3mo

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Saudi Arabia

24h volume
183
213.6k lifetime
Open interest
85.8k
Spread
3¢
29 × 24 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−4

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
94¢ / 97¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6,90020¢
  • ask17919¢
  • ask3318¢
  • ask2217¢
  • ask1,15311¢
  • ask6010¢
  • ask1910¢
  • ask246¢
spread3¢mid 5¢
  • bid293¢
  • bid1503¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid1483¢
  • bid30.0k3¢
  • bid5552¢
  • bid1,1052¢
  • bid3,0012¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
7h ago3¢1bought no
7h ago3¢1.6bought no
13h ago7¢51bought yes
13h ago6¢60bought yes
13h ago6¢3.21bought yes
13h ago6¢33bought yes
22h ago6¢6.4bought yes
22h ago6¢27bought yes
2d ago7¢117bought yes
2d ago6¢28bought yes
2d ago4¢1bought no
2d ago7¢1bought yes
2d ago7¢47bought yes
2d ago7¢11bought yes
2d ago7¢1.08bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.