KXABRAHAMSA·closes in 28mo

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means During Trump's term

24h volume
204
90.6k lifetime
Open interest
39.3k
+17.8k over 90d
Spread
5 × 73 at the touch
24h range
10¢ – 97¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
33%2

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
67%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 66¢
24h low 10¢24h high 97¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

25¢50¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,80474¢
  • ask30069¢
  • ask1,99368¢
  • ask50056¢
  • ask3955¢
  • ask4354¢
  • ask20040¢
  • ask7339¢
spreadmid 37¢
  • bid534¢
  • bid1531¢
  • bid20030¢
  • bid5625¢
  • bid14822¢
  • bid21321¢
  • bid9917¢
  • bid20016¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

opened
Nov 21, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSA-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago33¢5bought no
3h ago33¢3.75bought no
6h ago39¢2.45bought yes
6h ago38¢0.14bought yes
6h ago39¢54bought yes
9h ago32¢0.14bought no
10h ago39¢6.63bought yes
10h ago39¢10bought yes
10h ago39¢13bought yes
10h ago38¢1bought yes
12h ago39¢90bought yes
12h ago37¢4.08bought yes
12h ago37¢5bought yes
22h ago31¢3.51bought no
22h ago31¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.