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Syria recognition·closes in 28mo

Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
0
38.6k lifetime
Open interest
8,605
Spread
7¢
202 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
26%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 82¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11145¢
  • ask10035¢
  • ask4132¢
  • ask12531¢
  • ask20028¢
  • ask527¢
  • ask1326¢
  • ask1525¢
spread7¢mid 22¢
  • bid20218¢
  • bid46515¢
  • bid11510¢
  • bid409¢
  • bid4449¢
  • bid678¢
  • bid1407¢
  • bid2007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Syria normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSY-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.