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Syria recognition·closes in 28mo

Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Before Jan 20, 2029

24h volume
0
38.6k lifetime
Open interest
8,605
+822 over 90d
Spread
7¢
202 × 15 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
26%

A YES contract costs 25¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
74%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 25¢
NO bid / ask
75¢ / 82¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢30¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask11145¢
  • ask10035¢
  • ask4132¢
  • ask12531¢
  • ask20028¢
  • ask527¢
  • ask1326¢
  • ask1525¢
spread7¢mid 22¢
  • bid20218¢
  • bid46515¢
  • bid11510¢
  • bid409¢
  • bid4449¢
  • bid678¢
  • bid1407¢
  • bid2007¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Israel and Syria normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 11, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXABRAHAMSY-29-JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago25¢4bought yes
1d ago26¢5.36bought yes
1d ago24¢15bought yes
6d ago24¢2bought yes
16d ago22¢5bought yes
19d ago19¢24bought no
21d ago20¢3bought no
22d ago24¢16bought yes
22d ago24¢5bought yes
22d ago23¢5bought yes
22d ago22¢5bought yes
22d ago23¢10bought yes
26d ago19¢77bought no
26d ago20¢10bought no
27d ago19¢48bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.