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WHO WILL BE THE ACTOR IN WHITELOTUS·closes in 16mo

Will Paul Mescal be cast in The White Lotus: Season 4?

YES means Paul Mescal

24h volume
0
2,872 lifetime
Open interest
153
Spread
7¢
5 × 8 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
7%

A YES contract costs 10¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 10¢
NO bid / ask
90¢ / 97¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask1889¢
  • ask62687¢
  • ask24986¢
  • ask11211¢
  • ask810¢
spread7¢mid 6¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid2402¢
  • bid2001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Paul Mescal is cast in The White Lotus: Season 4, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Dec 12, 2025 · 10:15 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXACTORWHITELOTUS-27-PAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.