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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 9mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume
51
18.0k lifetime
Open interest
8,286
Spread
5¢
17 × 517 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%−2

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 59¢

YES bid / ask
41¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 59¢
Recent buying23% YES · 77% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask55076¢
  • ask1,10275¢
  • ask1072¢
  • ask50069¢
  • ask6668¢
  • ask6765¢
  • ask51746¢
spread5¢mid 43¢
  • bid1741¢
  • bid4340¢
  • bid50038¢
  • bid2332¢
  • bid2,00031¢
  • bid55020¢
  • bid2,05914¢
  • bid1613¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-27Q2
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 23% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago45¢4bought no
20h ago52¢47bought yes
3d ago47¢1.02bought yes
5d ago31¢1,512bought no
5d ago39¢400bought no
5d ago48¢222bought no
5d ago50¢43bought no
5d ago40¢62bought no
5d ago52¢5bought no
5d ago51¢2bought no
5d ago55¢1.66bought yes
6d ago54¢2bought yes
6d ago55¢1.55bought yes
6d ago51¢2.77bought no
6d ago51¢1.55bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.