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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 25mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?

YES means Before Oct 1, 2028

24h volume
42
4,331 lifetime
Open interest
3,134
Spread
1¢
1 × 2,513 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
77%−2

A YES contract costs 78¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
23%

costs 23¢

YES bid / ask
77¢ / 78¢
NO bid / ask
22¢ / 23¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask33397¢
  • ask37596¢
  • ask2,01295¢
  • ask58994¢
  • ask5193¢
  • ask3.0190¢
  • ask20082¢
  • ask2,51378¢
spread1¢mid 78¢
  • bid177¢
  • bid20074¢
  • bid2568¢
  • bid30067¢
  • bid1,00060¢
  • bid19759¢
  • bid56521¢
  • bid2,25820¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
13h ago77¢9bought no
15h ago77¢14bought no
17h ago77¢19bought no
2d ago79¢544bought no
2d ago79¢5bought no
2d ago79¢2bought no
2d ago79¢3bought no
3d ago78¢34bought no
3d ago78¢16bought no
3d ago78¢0.88bought no
3d ago78¢11bought no
3d ago78¢24bought no
3d ago78¢24bought no
3d ago78¢12bought no
3d ago78¢12bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.