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Will any company achieve AGI before [date]?·closes in 40mo

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2030

24h volume
3.33
4,189 lifetime
Open interest
2,320
+22 over 7d
Spread
7¢
2.09 × 2,766 at the touch
24h range
52¢ – 53¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
52%−29

A YES contract costs 87¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
48%

costs 20¢

YES bid / ask
80¢ / 87¢
NO bid / ask
13¢ / 20¢
24h low 52¢24h high 53¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15395¢
  • ask393¢
  • ask3992¢
  • ask2,76687¢
spread7¢mid 84¢
  • bid2.0980¢
  • bid20079¢
  • bid1052¢
  • bid1051¢
  • bid1050¢
  • bid13137¢
  • bid37436¢
  • bid1033¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 3 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAGICO-COMP-29
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19h ago52¢0.43bought no
19h ago53¢2.9bought no
2d ago81¢3bought no
2d ago77¢0.61bought yes
2d ago77¢2bought yes
2d ago78¢0.33bought yes
2d ago78¢3bought yes
3d ago80¢32bought no
3d ago79¢139bought no
3d ago81¢2bought no
3d ago82¢18bought no
3d ago84¢1.13bought no
3d ago83¢0.87bought no
3d ago82¢1.99bought no
4d ago76¢0.56bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.