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Federal AI model shutdown authority·closes in 3mo

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jan 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2027

24h volume
244
14.9k lifetime
Open interest
10.7k
Spread
2¢
7.9 × 103 at the touch
24h range
–
47 recent trades
Chance of YES
7%−1

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
93%

costs 93¢

YES bid / ask
7¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 93¢
Recent buying81% YES · 19% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,00018¢
  • ask50015¢
  • ask20014¢
  • ask10013¢
  • ask20012¢
  • ask70011¢
  • ask50210¢
  • ask1039¢
spread2¢mid 8¢
  • bid7.97¢
  • bid1966¢
  • bid7.295¢
  • bid6754¢
  • bid2002¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government authority to activate it is not required. A general power to ban AI development or deployment does not qualify without a required technical shutdown capability. The capability need not be activated before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXAIKILLSWITCH-26SEP-27JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 47 trades, 81% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
12h ago7¢8.81bought no
12h ago7¢18bought no
14h ago10¢1.08bought yes
14h ago11¢5.34bought yes
14h ago11¢1.64bought yes
14h ago9¢1bought yes
14h ago11¢3.03bought yes
14h ago11¢1.63bought yes
14h ago11¢3.59bought yes
19h ago8¢100bought no
19h ago8¢1bought no
19h ago7¢80bought no
19h ago7¢19bought no
1d ago8¢1.08bought no
2d ago9¢20bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.