Federal AI model shutdown authority·closes in 9mo

Will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law before Jul 1, 2027?

YES means Before Jul 1, 2027

24h volume: 0; 0.28 lifetime
Open interest: 0.28; +0.28 over 30d
Spread: 8¢; 5 × 200 at the touch
24h range: –; 1 recent trades

Chance of YES

33%

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

67%

costs 69¢

YES bid / ask

31¢ / 39¢

NO bid / ask

61¢ / 69¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5,00080¢
ask3379¢
ask3,39478¢
ask1,51377¢
ask670¢
ask1,05369¢
ask20068¢
ask20039¢

spread8¢mid 35¢

bid531¢
bid20030¢
bid17611¢
bid2,3882¢
bid1001¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If legislation requiring AI kill switches has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

A qualifying federal law must require a technical capability to halt or disable an AI model or system when needed to address safety or security risks or loss of control. This may be implemented through shutdown, suspension, or cutting off the resources or access the system needs to operate. Control may remain with the company; government authority to activate it is not required. A general power to ban AI development or deployment does not qualify without a required technical shutdown capability. The capability need not be activated before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).

Settlement sources

opened: Sep 17 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes: Jul 1, 2027 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXAIKILLSWITCH-26SEP-27JUL01

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
2d ago	33¢	0.28	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.