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Anthropic lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

YES means JPMorgan Chase

24h volume
0
801 lifetime
Open interest
610
Spread
3¢
0 × 615 at the touch
24h range
–
26 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 100¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6699¢
  • ask5,05098¢
  • ask5697¢
  • ask1928¢
  • ask1919¢
  • ask2004¢
  • ask6153¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If JPMorgan Chase serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT-28JAN01B-JPMX
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 26 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    5d ago2¢25bought no
    7d ago2¢16bought no
    7d ago2¢75bought no
    7d ago2¢59bought no
    7d ago2¢50bought no
    8d ago2¢22bought no
    9d ago3¢20bought yes
    9d ago2¢12bought no
    9d ago2¢5bought no
    9d ago2¢20bought no
    12d ago3¢19bought yes
    12d ago3¢25bought yes
    12d ago3¢25bought yes
    12d ago3¢31bought yes
    13d ago2¢14bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.