galdor.xyz
Admin
Anthropic lead left IPO·closes in 16mo

Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's IPO?

YES means Morgan Stanley

24h volume
0
14.6k lifetime
Open interest
7,352
+4,463 over 30d
Spread
5¢
1 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
80%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
20%

costs 21¢

YES bid / ask
79¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 21¢
Recent buying27% YES · 73% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5199¢
  • ask91398¢
  • ask1895¢
  • ask1691¢
  • ask0.2989¢
  • ask68486¢
  • ask184¢
spread5¢mid 82¢
  • bid179¢
  • bid20078¢
  • bid7224¢
  • bid40723¢
  • bid2019¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Morgan Stanley serves as lead-left underwriter on Anthropic's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

If two or more underwriters are presented on the cover of the final prospectus as jointly occupying the lead-left position, such that no single underwriter is uppermost-and-leftmost (for example, two names sharing equal top billing), then each such underwriter's outcome resolves to $1/(the number of tied underwriters), rounded down, for “Yes”, and “No” will be paid $1 minus the Yes value.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 3 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXANTHROPICLEADLEFT-28JAN01B-MSX
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 102¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 27% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago80¢19bought yes
2d ago79¢7bought yes
2d ago80¢2.46bought yes
3d ago76¢100bought no
3d ago75¢85bought no
3d ago75¢15bought no
3d ago79¢200bought no
3d ago79¢200bought no
5d ago81¢111bought yes
7d ago76¢45bought no
7d ago81¢25bought no
7d ago81¢30bought no
7d ago81¢50bought no
7d ago81¢70bought no
7d ago81¢50bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.