Australia House elections·closes in 37mo

Will One Nation win the next Australian House election?

YES means One Nation

24h volume: 0; 479 lifetime
Open interest: 454
Spread: 9¢; 200 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –; 1 recent trades

Chance of YES

11%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

89%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask

2¢ / 11¢

NO bid / ask

89¢ / 98¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask14100¢
ask4598¢
ask3198¢
ask33565¢
ask3764¢
ask118¢
ask20012¢
ask511¢

spread9¢mid 7¢

bid2002¢
bid100¢
bid2000¢
bid1,0000¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the winner of the next Australian House election is One Nation, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources

Australian Electoral Commission

opened: Jan 30 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes: Sep 30, 2029 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Sep 30, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXAUSTRALIAHOUSE-28-ON

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 1 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
1mo ago	11¢	43	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.