Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 2500

24h volume: 0; 1,098 lifetime
Open interest: 1,096; +1,017 over 30d
Spread: 3¢; 10 × 500 at the touch
24h range: –; 5 recent trades

Chance of YES

91%

A YES contract costs 91¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

costs 12¢

YES bid / ask

88¢ / 91¢

NO bid / ask

9¢ / 12¢

Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask50091¢

spread3¢mid 90¢

bid1088¢
bid5087¢
bid10086¢
bid50083¢
bid176¢
bid21924¢
bid2,23423¢
bid7,0803¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 2500, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: May 21 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor: 2500
ticker: KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-2500

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 5 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
17d ago	91¢	1.02	bought yes
18d ago	86¢	500	bought yes
18d ago	85¢	10	bought yes
18d ago	80¢	500	bought yes
19d ago	80¢	6.16	bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.