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Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 3000

24h volume
0
1,271 lifetime
Open interest
1,164
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
5 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
13 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 70¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 35¢

YES bid / ask
65¢ / 70¢
NO bid / ask
30¢ / 35¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
60¢70¢80¢volSep 20, 7:05 AMSep 20, 11:16 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask60796¢
  • ask4995¢
  • ask14394¢
  • ask74693¢
  • ask1,05290¢
  • ask15589¢
  • ask0.2377¢
  • ask50070¢
spread5¢mid 68¢
  • bid565¢
  • bid9864¢
  • bid10063¢
  • bid50062¢
  • bid2839¢
  • bid3,3028¢
  • bid4,9503¢
  • bid2,9202¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
3000
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 13 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago70¢500bought yes
11d ago69¢1.29bought no
11d ago69¢1.29bought no
11d ago76¢1.29bought yes
15d ago70¢500bought yes
17d ago70¢1.31bought yes
1mo ago69¢4.25bought yes
1mo ago77¢1.27bought yes
2mo ago66¢35bought yes
2mo ago65¢40bought yes
2mo ago59¢2.77bought yes
2mo ago59¢2.23bought yes
2mo ago57¢2.23bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.