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Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 3500

24h volume
0
755 lifetime
Open interest
293
+0 over 24h
Spread
27¢
5 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
17 recent trades
Chance of YES
64%

A YES contract costs 89¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
36%

costs 38¢

YES bid / ask
62¢ / 89¢
NO bid / ask
11¢ / 38¢
Recent buying57% YES · 43% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3392¢
  • ask20089¢
spread27¢mid 76¢
  • bid562¢
  • bid16961¢
  • bid4755¢
  • bid25054¢
  • bid1,00053¢
  • bid50051¢
  • bid1.8625¢
  • bid20021¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 3500, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
3500
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-3500
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 17 trades, 57% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago64¢30bought yes
17d ago59¢33bought yes
18d ago52¢31bought no
19d ago59¢0.01bought yes
19d ago58¢5bought yes
20d ago59¢31bought yes
28d ago56¢17bought yes
28d ago51¢100bought no
28d ago50¢168bought no
28d ago51¢5bought no
1mo ago60¢3bought yes
1mo ago96¢0.14bought yes
1mo ago54¢5bought yes
1mo ago54¢5bought yes
1mo ago55¢268bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.