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Measles during Trump admin·closes in 28mo

What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?

YES means At least 4000

24h volume
0
992 lifetime
Open interest
224
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
47 × 1.86 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
45%

A YES contract costs 54¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
55%

costs 49¢

YES bid / ask
51¢ / 54¢
NO bid / ask
46¢ / 49¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
40¢45¢50¢55¢60¢volSep 15Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9599¢
  • ask6698¢
  • ask8596¢
  • ask2.191¢
  • ask9.8375¢
  • ask255¢
  • ask1.8654¢
spread3¢mid 53¢
  • bid4751¢
  • bid4550¢
  • bid5046¢
  • bid11042¢
  • bid50041¢
  • bid10037¢
  • bid3025¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 21 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
4000
ticker
KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4000
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10d ago45¢1.95bought no
12d ago42¢1.86bought no
12d ago49¢1.95bought yes
22d ago52¢9.3bought yes
25d ago53¢27bought yes
25d ago49¢0.12bought yes
26d ago49¢1.88bought yes
1mo ago52¢1.83bought yes
1mo ago52¢1.86bought yes
1mo ago51¢19bought yes
2mo ago45¢10bought no
2mo ago50¢194bought yes
2mo ago44¢17bought no
2mo ago45¢176bought no
2mo ago43¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.