What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?
YES means At least 4500
- 24h volume
- 0
- 884 lifetime
- Open interest
- 687
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 7¢
- 5 × 500 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 9 recent trades
A YES contract costs 42¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 65¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask69477¢
- ask23776¢
- ask4.5775¢
- ask444¢
- ask6.0343¢
- ask50042¢
- bid535¢
- bid50034¢
- bid1.525¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4500, then the market resolves to Yes.
- opened
- May 21 · 6:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 4500
- ticker
- KXAVGMEASLESDJT-29-4500
Other outcomes in this event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
Recent trades
Over the last 9 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | 42¢ | 4.57 | bought yes |
| 20d ago | 40¢ | 23 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 37¢ | 75 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 42¢ | 23 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 39¢ | 84 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 43¢ | 22 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 42¢ | 284 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 42¢ | 166 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 37¢ | 5 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.