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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·closes in 25mo

Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES means Flavio Bolsonaro

24h volume
0
5,043 lifetime
Open interest
4,660
+72 over 7d
Spread
1¢
313 × 139 at the touch
24h range
–
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
93%

A YES contract costs 99¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
7%

costs 2¢

YES bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
NO bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
Recent buying96% YES · 4% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask13999¢
spread1¢mid 99¢
  • bid31398¢
  • bid81397¢
  • bid2894¢
  • bid579¢
  • bid1,56444¢
  • bid55038¢
  • bid1030¢
  • bid482¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Flavio Bolsonaro is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBRPRESADVANCE-26OCT04-FBOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 96% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago94¢1bought no
4d ago93¢81bought no
4d ago95¢72bought no
4d ago96¢1bought no
9d ago98¢109bought yes
9d ago98¢500bought yes
9d ago98¢109bought yes
11d ago97¢250bought yes
11d ago97¢205bought yes
13d ago96¢1bought no
17d ago97¢11bought yes
21d ago94¢2bought yes
21d ago93¢1bought yes
21d ago92¢5bought yes
22d ago92¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.