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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·closes in 25mo

Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES means Michelle Bolsonaro

24h volume
0
2,620 lifetime
Open interest
1,092
+0 over 7d
Spread
4¢
0 × 888 at the touch
24h range
–
7 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 100¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,09349¢
  • ask1,37947¢
  • ask11737¢
  • ask26436¢
  • ask2527¢
  • ask2,5007¢
  • ask256¢
  • ask8884¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Michelle Bolsonaro is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 7 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXBRPRESADVANCE-26OCT04-MBOL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 7 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    29d ago1¢50bought no
    29d ago1¢500bought no
    29d ago2¢5bought no
    2mo ago6¢5bought yes
    2mo ago6¢32bought yes
    2mo ago7¢47bought yes
    2mo ago7¢55bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.