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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·closes in 25mo

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES means Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

24h volume
0
1,532 lifetime
Open interest
1,279
Spread
2¢
250 × 476 at the touch
24h range
–
23 recent trades
Chance of YES
95%

A YES contract costs 97¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
5%

costs 5¢

YES bid / ask
95¢ / 97¢
NO bid / ask
3¢ / 5¢
Recent buying5% YES · 95% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2699¢
  • ask47697¢
spread2¢mid 96¢
  • bid25095¢
  • bid35494¢
  • bid10092¢
  • bid55591¢
  • bid1278¢
  • bid1,59244¢
  • bid463¢
  • bid462¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 7 · 11:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Oct 3, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBRPRESADVANCE-26OCT04-LSIL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 23 trades, 5% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago95¢26bought no
1d ago97¢2bought yes
1d ago97¢24bought yes
2d ago96¢1bought no
2d ago93¢1bought no
2d ago93¢8.65bought no
2d ago97¢354bought no
2d ago97¢246bought no
3d ago97¢200bought no
8d ago97¢54bought no
8d ago98¢46bought no
8d ago98¢104bought no
8d ago98¢100bought no
9d ago98¢10bought no
9d ago98¢11bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.