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Will Bitcoin hit 250k in 2026? ·closes in 2mo

Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Above $250000

24h volume
20.4k
1.57M lifetime
Open interest
642.3k
+20.1k over 24h
Spread
1¢
0 × 127.0k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volNov 4, 7:23 AMNov 5, 5:30 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4758¢
  • ask357¢
  • ask7,2466¢
  • ask2,4135¢
  • ask15.0k4¢
  • ask20.1k3¢
  • ask8,8052¢
  • ask127.0k1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Oct 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
    floor
    250000
    ticker
    KXBTC2026250-27JAN01-250000
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    This event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    This is the only market in Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    7m ago1¢4,676bought yes
    19m ago1¢4,676bought yes
    1h ago1¢94bought yes
    2h ago1¢5.04bought yes
    2h ago1¢9.35bought yes
    2h ago1¢374bought yes
    4h ago1¢60bought yes
    5h ago1¢94bought yes
    6h ago1¢2,338bought yes
    7h ago1¢3,180bought yes
    7h ago1¢94bought yes
    8h ago1¢94bought yes
    9h ago1¢35bought yes
    9h ago1¢468bought yes
    10h ago1¢93bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.