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Will Bitcoin hit 250k in 2026? ·closes in 3mo

Will Bitcoin be above $250000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Above $250000

24h volume
3,575
1.16M lifetime
Open interest
406.7k
Spread
1¢
2,418 × 2,622 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%+1

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
250000
ticker
KXBTC2026250-27JAN01-250000
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6m ago2¢1.91bought yes
6m ago2¢33bought yes
6m ago1¢35bought no
6m ago2¢3.63bought yes
6m ago1¢3.63bought no
6m ago2¢3.67bought yes
7m ago1¢3.67bought no
7m ago1¢168bought no
7m ago1¢33bought no
7m ago1¢3.96bought no
7m ago1¢27bought no
7m ago1¢1.56bought no
14m ago2¢35bought yes
14m ago1¢35bought no
14m ago2¢3.53bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.