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Will BTC fall below 50k before hitting 100k?·closes in 3mo

Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?

YES means 50,000 first

24h volume
28.5k
1.25M lifetime
Open interest
584.4k
+96.5k over 7d
Spread
2¢
1,534 × 966 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 20¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
11%−3

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
89%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 89¢
24h low 11¢24h high 20¢
Recent buying76% YES · 24% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 14Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market tracks whether the cryptocurrency price reaches the first threshold before the second threshold. "Reaches" means the price touches or falls below $50,000 (the lower threshold) OR touches or rises above $100,000 (the upper threshold). The first threshold reached determines the outcome. Price is measured using the CF Real-Time Index, taking a simple average over any 60-second period. If $50,000 is reached first, the market resolves to Yes. If $100,000 is reached first, the market resolves to No. If neither threshold is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to No. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 2 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 76% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
29s ago11¢17bought no
2m ago11¢181bought no
2m ago11¢145bought no
3m ago13¢73bought yes
3m ago13¢145bought yes
4m ago13¢181bought yes
6m ago12¢66bought yes
6m ago13¢84bought yes
6m ago12¢8.99bought yes
6m ago12¢28bought yes
6m ago12¢18bought yes
7m ago11¢55bought no
7m ago12¢3.92bought yes
9m ago12¢1.31bought yes
10m ago12¢28bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.