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Will BTC fall below 50k before hitting 100k?·closes in 3mo

Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?

YES means 50,000 first

24h volume
32.8k
1.25M lifetime
Open interest
587.0k
+16.3k over 24h
Spread
1¢
544 × 91 at the touch
24h range
11¢ – 16¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
12%−2

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
88%

costs 88¢

YES bid / ask
12¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 88¢
24h low 11¢24h high 16¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 12:59 AMSep 21, 12:56 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,20820¢
  • ask1619¢
  • ask1,18618¢
  • ask5,20317¢
  • ask5,43716¢
  • ask50215¢
  • ask2,03614¢
  • ask9113¢
spread1¢mid 13¢
  • bid54412¢
  • bid86711¢
  • bid2,97510¢
  • bid3,3269¢
  • bid2,7858¢
  • bid2,2697¢
  • bid7,9206¢
  • bid7,1765¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market tracks whether the cryptocurrency price reaches the first threshold before the second threshold. "Reaches" means the price touches or falls below $50,000 (the lower threshold) OR touches or rises above $100,000 (the upper threshold). The first threshold reached determines the outcome. Price is measured using the CF Real-Time Index, taking a simple average over any 60-second period. If $50,000 is reached first, the market resolves to Yes. If $100,000 is reached first, the market resolves to No. If neither threshold is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to No. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 2 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
38s ago12¢33bought no
38s ago12¢171bought no
6m ago12¢64bought no
7m ago13¢2.82bought yes
9m ago13¢0.01bought yes
9m ago12¢0.01bought no
10m ago13¢8.76bought yes
10m ago14¢52bought yes
11m ago13¢2.35bought yes
11m ago13¢5.69bought yes
12m ago13¢11bought yes
12m ago13¢32bought yes
12m ago13¢9.39bought yes
12m ago14¢29bought yes
12m ago13¢15bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.