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Will BTC fall below 50k before hitting 100k?·closes in 3mo

Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000 by Dec 31, 2026?

YES means 50,000 first

24h volume
32.5k
1.25M lifetime
Open interest
587.5k
+472.9k over 30d
Spread
1¢
27 × 1,945 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 50¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
24h low 4¢24h high 50¢
Recent buying61% YES · 39% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask36821¢
  • ask5,20520¢
  • ask1619¢
  • ask1,18618¢
  • ask5,19717¢
  • ask5,43716¢
  • ask50015¢
  • ask1,94514¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid2713¢
  • bid90012¢
  • bid76711¢
  • bid2,96010¢
  • bid3,3269¢
  • bid2,7858¢
  • bid2,2697¢
  • bid7,9206¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If BTC reaches $50,000 before reaching $100,000 between Issuance and 11:59 PM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market tracks whether the cryptocurrency price reaches the first threshold before the second threshold. "Reaches" means the price touches or falls below $50,000 (the lower threshold) OR touches or rises above $100,000 (the upper threshold). The first threshold reached determines the outcome. Price is measured using the CF Real-Time Index, taking a simple average over any 60-second period. If $50,000 is reached first, the market resolves to Yes. If $100,000 is reached first, the market resolves to No. If neither threshold is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to No. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 2 · 5:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26DEC31
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 61% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago13¢1.13bought no
4m ago14¢11bought yes
5m ago14¢13bought yes
12m ago14¢168bought yes
12m ago12¢0.35bought no
15m ago14¢56bought yes
15m ago13¢28bought yes
15m ago13¢84bought yes
15m ago13¢15bought yes
15m ago14¢17bought yes
17m ago12¢49bought no
17m ago13¢6.96bought no
17m ago14¢28bought yes
18m ago13¢9.01bought no
18m ago13¢19bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.