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BTC halving·closes in 17mo

When will Bitcoin have its next halving?

YES means Before Apr 2028

24h volume
2
4,837 lifetime
Open interest
727
−36 over 30d
Spread
8¢
500 × 500 at the touch
24h range
40¢ – 48¢
16 recent trades
Chance of YES
48%

A YES contract costs 48¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
52%

costs 60¢

YES bid / ask
40¢ / 48¢
NO bid / ask
52¢ / 60¢
24h low 40¢24h high 48¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢volOct 6Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask16194¢
  • ask11591¢
  • ask1,15191¢
  • ask1390¢
  • ask476¢
  • ask91275¢
  • ask4674¢
  • ask50048¢
spread8¢mid 44¢
  • bid50040¢
  • bid220¢
  • bid509¢
  • bid2228¢
  • bid2,5737¢
  • bid5,0005¢
  • bid4,9384¢
  • bid4,8623¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bitcoin halves before Apr 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Apr 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBTCHALF-28APR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 16 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago48¢1bought yes
6h ago40¢1bought no
3d ago48¢1.52bought yes
6d ago40¢4bought no
6d ago48¢4bought yes
24d ago40¢36bought no
29d ago40¢2.01bought no
1mo ago48¢2.01bought yes
1mo ago44¢4bought no
1mo ago40¢5.98bought no
1mo ago48¢9.98bought yes
1mo ago48¢2bought yes
2mo ago48¢41bought yes
2mo ago41¢38bought no
2mo ago40¢2.99bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.