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BTC halving·closes in 18mo

When will Bitcoin have its next halving?

YES means Before May 2028

24h volume
0
6,238 lifetime
Open interest
1,437
+0 over 7d
Spread
3¢
0.09 × 40 at the touch
24h range
–
45 recent trades
Chance of YES
77%

A YES contract costs 77¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
23%

costs 26¢

YES bid / ask
74¢ / 77¢
NO bid / ask
23¢ / 26¢
Recent buying45% YES · 55% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
70¢75¢80¢85¢volOct 29Nov 3

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1.3190¢
  • ask57389¢
  • ask6388¢
  • ask36887¢
  • ask50080¢
  • ask6379¢
  • ask0.0478¢
  • ask4077¢
spread3¢mid 76¢
  • bid0.0974¢
  • bid4073¢
  • bid50072¢
  • bid94451¢
  • bid3250¢
  • bid733¢
  • bid30822¢
  • bid27721¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bitcoin halves before May 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBTCHALF-28MAY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 45 trades, 45% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago77¢0.01bought yes
10d ago72¢8.91bought no
10d ago73¢56bought no
10d ago73¢5.53bought no
10d ago79¢58bought yes
10d ago78¢9.55bought yes
10d ago78¢3.21bought yes
12d ago78¢3.38bought yes
13d ago71¢2.67bought no
13d ago72¢7.33bought no
13d ago78¢1.04bought yes
13d ago78¢7.83bought yes
13d ago79¢1.13bought yes
16d ago72¢6bought no
20d ago72¢1.95bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.