galdor.xyz
Admin
BTC halving·closes in 20mo

When will Bitcoin have its next halving?

YES means Before May 2028

24h volume
2.49
6,013 lifetime
Open interest
1,431
−221 over 30d
Spread
8¢
500 × 500 at the touch
24h range
79¢ – 79¢
39 recent trades
Chance of YES
79%

A YES contract costs 79¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
21%

costs 29¢

YES bid / ask
71¢ / 79¢
NO bid / ask
21¢ / 29¢
24h low 79¢24h high 79¢
Recent buying41% YES · 59% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
50¢75¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,000100¢
  • ask23399¢
  • ask11198¢
  • ask1,64398¢
  • ask4592¢
  • ask3.7591¢
  • ask1.3190¢
  • ask50079¢
spread8¢mid 75¢
  • bid50071¢
  • bid3560¢
  • bid6959¢
  • bid10058¢
  • bid2,00057¢
  • bid1,87237¢
  • bid1,54335¢
  • bid733¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bitcoin halves before May 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 19, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
May 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jun 1, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBTCHALF-28MAY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 39 trades, 41% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago79¢2.49bought yes
2d ago79¢12bought yes
5d ago80¢18bought yes
7d ago73¢77bought no
7d ago74¢100bought no
7d ago81¢6.09bought yes
8d ago81¢1.21bought yes
9d ago74¢18bought no
13d ago79¢24bought yes
13d ago80¢24bought yes
14d ago73¢2.46bought no
14d ago80¢2.46bought yes
20d ago74¢6.31bought no
20d ago78¢6.31bought yes
20d ago74¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.