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When will bitcoin hit 100k?·closes in 2mo

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by December 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before December 2026

24h volume
2,906
74.3k lifetime
Open interest
39.0k
Spread
1¢
10 × 1,081 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
20%+3

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 81¢

YES bid / ask
19¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 81¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5031¢
  • ask2.5230¢
  • ask228¢
  • ask1.0127¢
  • ask1,64324¢
  • ask3,33323¢
  • ask2321¢
  • ask1,08120¢
spread1¢mid 19¢
  • bid1019¢
  • bid3318¢
  • bid67017¢
  • bid3,33316¢
  • bid54711¢
  • bid21110¢
  • bid18¢
  • bid2277¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting Jul 21, 2026 and before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 1 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-NOV
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago20¢0.04bought yes
3h ago20¢3.53bought yes
3h ago20¢87bought yes
3h ago20¢0.44bought yes
21h ago23¢0.04bought yes
21h ago20¢0.08bought yes
21h ago21¢1,011bought yes
21h ago23¢471bought yes
21h ago20¢314bought yes
21h ago21¢314bought yes
21h ago21¢24bought yes
21h ago19¢10bought yes
21h ago17¢2.62bought yes
21h ago16¢1.4bought yes
21h ago16¢667bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.