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When will bitcoin hit 100k?·closes in 10d

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by October 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before October 2026

24h volume
1,250
1.77M lifetime
Open interest
922.9k
+273.8k over 7d
Spread
1¢
28.7k × 1,190 at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−1

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying19% YES · 81% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,00018¢
  • ask10216¢
  • ask10415¢
  • ask4013¢
  • ask15.0k5¢
  • ask33.0k4¢
  • ask30.9k3¢
  • ask1,1902¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid28.7k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 17 · 9:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 1 · 4:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 19% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
10h ago1¢250bought no
11h ago2¢35bought yes
18h ago2¢400bought yes
20h ago2¢256bought no
20h ago2¢6.78bought no
20h ago2¢0.94bought no
21h ago2¢100bought no
22h ago2¢200bought no
1d ago2¢171bought no
1d ago3¢40bought yes
1d ago3¢1.06bought yes
1d ago3¢40bought yes
1d ago2¢9bought no
1d ago3¢3.96bought yes
1d ago2¢3.96bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.