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When will bitcoin hit 100k?·closes in 2mo

Will Bitcoin be above $100000 by December 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET?

YES means Before December 2026

24h volume
1,396
75.6k lifetime
Open interest
39.6k
+643 over 24h
Spread
2¢
6.58 × 100 at the touch
24h range
18¢ – 22¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%−2

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 82¢

YES bid / ask
18¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 82¢
24h low 18¢24h high 22¢
Recent buying68% YES · 32% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢15¢20¢25¢volSep 20, 4:49 AMSep 21, 3:58 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2.5232¢
  • ask5031¢
  • ask228¢
  • ask1,64324¢
  • ask3,01023¢
  • ask1,41722¢
  • ask21821¢
  • ask10020¢
spread2¢mid 19¢
  • bid6.5818¢
  • bid66717¢
  • bid3,33316¢
  • bid8.9914¢
  • bid2912¢
  • bid53811¢
  • bid21110¢
  • bid2427¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting Jul 21, 2026 and before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22 · 2:00 AM UTC
closes
Dec 1 · 5:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2027 · 5:00 AM UTC
floor
100000
ticker
KXBTCMAX100-26-NOV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 68% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago20¢1.67bought yes
2h ago20¢0.03bought yes
2h ago20¢0.14bought yes
2h ago20¢28bought yes
2h ago21¢0.74bought yes
2h ago21¢16bought yes
3h ago20¢0.09bought yes
3h ago21¢89bought yes
3h ago22¢102bought yes
3h ago19¢1bought yes
3h ago19¢100bought yes
3h ago20¢23bought yes
3h ago20¢0.71bought yes
3h ago21¢1.7bought yes
3h ago19¢1.19bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.